AGS-PRF: A 1500 Year Paleoprecipitation Reconstruction From Lake Sediments for Improved Earth System Modeling of Aridity Patterns in Western North America

Under the aegis of the AGS-PRF (post-doctoral research fellowship) solicitation, the researcher aims to produce multiple, quantitative paleo-precipitation reconstructions, spanning the last 1,500 years, across an east-west transect of lakes in western North America. Specifically, the researcher will use hydrologic and isotope mass balance models to quantitatively interpret existing (Washington and British Columbia) and new (Montana) lake sediment isotope records to develop regional precipitation reconstructions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age.

These reconstructions will be used to investigate hypotheses regarding contrasting aridity patterns and to assist in ongoing experiments using perturbed physics ensemble runs of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model that govern potential changes in El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and their associated impacts on extra-tropical precipitation and drought patterns.

The broader impacts involve supporting an early career scientist and helping reduce the uncertainty in probabilistic future projections of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) phenomenon and helping to constrain predictions of future hydroclimatic conditions in the arid regions of western North America.