DISSERTATION RESEARCH: Predicting viral dynamics in Serengeti Carnivores

Diseases that infect multiple species threaten the health of humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. This study addresses the disease dynamics of two multi-species diseases in the Serengeti ecosystem: canine distemper virus (which killed over a thousand lions in 1994) and rabies (which kills humans as well as all other mammals). The objective of this thesis is to use innovative models parameterized with field data on intraspecific and interspecific contact rates to understand how canine distemper virus and rabies persist in the Serengeti ecosystem and to design appropriate control measures. Mathematical models allow for virtual experiments that would otherwise be unethical or infeasible in the real world.

This research will be the first ecological study of disease dynamics in wild carnivores to combine modeling with detailed observations in a multi-host ecosystem. The theoretical models developed here will not only contribute to a basic understanding of disease dynamics but also provide practical recommendations for carnivore conservation and human health in rural Africa. Theoretical approaches to real-life conservation actions are urgently needed to improve future disease control programs in an era of frequent emerging diseases.