Viral Transmission Dynamics in the Serengeti

Of the emerging infectious diseases, zoonotic and generalist viral pathogens pose a particular threat to public health and biodiversity. The effective control of these diseases requires both the identification of reservoires of infection and an understanding of viral transmission dynamics within complex host assemblages. Yet for most emerging infectious diseases, reservoirs remain to be identified and little is known about mechanisms by which infections are maintained. This study will propose a theoretical and practical framework for recognizing reservoirs in the field, which will be applied to identify reservoirs of viral infections in the Serengeti, Tanzania. The recent emergence of viral diseases in this area provides the opportunity for a comparative study of zoonotic and generalist pathogens within a diverse, well-studied and important ecosystem. Furthermore, the area is surrounded by rapidly expanding human and domestic animal populations which have profound impacts on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. This study will investigate the transmission dynamics of three viral pathogens, rabies, cane distemper virus (CDV), and canine parvovirus (CPV), identifying reservoirs of infection through a combination of approaches that include intervention trials, genetic analyses and disease surveillance. Empirical data on the spatial distribution of hosts and contact rated will be integrated into mathematical models of transmission between and within species. These models will be used to (a) investigate mechanisms by which viral infections are maintained in multi-population systems; (b) anticipate future requirements for disease management in relation to changes in human activity and climate patterns; (c) design cost-effective programs for the control of disease in human and animal populations.