Analog years: Connecting climate science and agricultural tradition to better manage landscapes of the future

Climate scientists rely on observed historical weather and climate data to inform current and future climate model projections. Similarly, agricultural producers use historical events—recent past experiences and historical narratives—to construct local knowledge to assess, quantify, and manage current and future risks. These historical data, events, and experiences become reference points or analogs when compared to a current phenomenon that exhibits similar characteristics specific to past conditions. In this paper we utilize a lens of agricultural traditions and past experiences to posit a temporal reference framework. In-person interviews with 159 Midwest farmers illustrate how the past influences farmers’ perceptions of current and future risks and is used to integrate scientific climate information to inform decision-making. Qualitative analysis provides support for the temporal reference framework, but more empirical testing is needed to further validate the model.