Challenging Conclusions About Predictive Bias Against Hispanic Test Takers in Personnel Selection

Berry et al. (2020) noted that predictive bias is a function of three factors: subgroup mean difference on the predictor (d_x), subgroup mean difference on the criterion (d_y), and test validity (r_xy). They used metaanalytic estimates of each of these three to examine predictive bias against Hispanic test takers when cognitive tests are used in personnel selection. They found that tests underpredict Hispanic job performance by an average of.21 SDs, which would call into question the fairness of cognitive test use in personnel selection. We located 119 studies in which all three parameters—d_y, d_x, and r_xy—could be obtained, thus holding sample, setting, and operationalization constant in estimating the three parameters within each study. This produced a substantially different conclusion: We find that tests overpredict Hispanic performance by.04–.20 SDs, depending on assumptions made about artifact corrections. Factors contributing to differences between the two studies include differences in range restriction corrections, sample incomparability, and Berry et al.’s