Changes in criteria air pollution levels in the US before, during, and after Covid-19 stay-at-home orders: Evidence from regulatory monitors

The widespread and rapid social and economic changes from Covid-19 response might be expected to dramatically improve air quality. However, national monitoring data from the US Environmental Protection Agency for criteria pollutants (PM_2.5, ozone, NO₂, CO, PM₁₀) provide inconsistent support for that expectation. Specifically, during stay-at-home orders, average PM_2.5 levels were slightly higher (~10% of its multi-year interquartile range [IQR]) than expected; average ozone, NO₂, CO, and PM₁₀ levels were slightly lower (~30%, ~20%, ~27%, and ~1% of their IQR, respectively) than expected. The timing of peak anomaly, relative to the stay-at-home orders, varied by pollutant (ozone: 2 weeks before; NO₂, CO: 3 weeks after; PM₁₀: 2 weeks after); but, by 5–6 weeks after stay-at-home orders, the concentration anomalies appear to have ended. For PM_2.5, ozone, CO, and PM₁₀, no US state had lower-than-expected pollution levels for all weeks during stay-at-home-orders; for NO₂, only Arizona had lower-than-expected levels for all weeks during stay-at-home orders. Our findings show that the enormous changes from the Covid-19 response have not lowered PM_2.5 levels across the US beyond their normal range of variability; for ozone, NO₂, CO, and PM₁₀ concentrations were lowered but the reduction was modest and transient.