TY - JOUR
T1 - Climate change may outpace current wheat breeding yield improvements in North America
AU - Zhang, Tianyi
AU - He, Yong
AU - DePauw, Ron
AU - Jin, Zhenong
AU - Garvin, David
AU - Yue, Xu
AU - Anderson, Weston
AU - Li, Tao
AU - Dong, Xin
AU - Zhang, Tao
AU - Yang, Xiaoguang
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).
PY - 2022/12
Y1 - 2022/12
N2 - Variety adaptation to future climate for wheat is important but lacks comprehensive understanding. Here, we evaluate genetic advancement under current and future climate using a dataset of wheat breeding nurseries in North America during 1960-2018. Results show that yields declined by 3.6% per 1 °C warming for advanced winter wheat breeding lines, compared with −5.5% for the check variety, indicating a superior climate-resilience. However, advanced spring wheat breeding lines showed a 7.5% yield reduction per 1 °C warming, which is more sensitive than a 7.1% reduction for the check variety, indicating climate resilience is not improved and may even decline for spring wheat. Under future climate of SSP scenarios, yields of winter and spring wheat exhibit declining trends even with advanced breeding lines, suggesting future climate warming could outpace the yield gains from current breeding progress. Our study highlights that the adaptation progress following the current wheat breeding strategies is challenging.
AB - Variety adaptation to future climate for wheat is important but lacks comprehensive understanding. Here, we evaluate genetic advancement under current and future climate using a dataset of wheat breeding nurseries in North America during 1960-2018. Results show that yields declined by 3.6% per 1 °C warming for advanced winter wheat breeding lines, compared with −5.5% for the check variety, indicating a superior climate-resilience. However, advanced spring wheat breeding lines showed a 7.5% yield reduction per 1 °C warming, which is more sensitive than a 7.1% reduction for the check variety, indicating climate resilience is not improved and may even decline for spring wheat. Under future climate of SSP scenarios, yields of winter and spring wheat exhibit declining trends even with advanced breeding lines, suggesting future climate warming could outpace the yield gains from current breeding progress. Our study highlights that the adaptation progress following the current wheat breeding strategies is challenging.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41467-022-33265-1
DO - 10.1038/s41467-022-33265-1
M3 - Article
C2 - 36180462
AN - SCOPUS:85139031312
SN - 2041-1723
VL - 13
JO - Nature communications
JF - Nature communications
IS - 1
M1 - 5591
ER -