Development of Comorbidity Index for in-hospital mortality for patients who underwent coronary artery revascularization

BACKGROUND: For myocardial revascularization, coronary artery bypass grafting (CAGB) and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are two common modalities but with high in-hospital mortality. A Comorbidity Index is useful to predict mortality or can be used with other covariates to develop point-scoring systems. This study aimed to develop specific comorbidity indices for patients who underwent coronary artery revascularization. METHODS: Patients who underwent CABG or PCI were identified in the National Inpatient Sample database between Q4 2015-2020. Patients of age <40 were excluded for congenital heart defects. Patients were randomly sampled into experimental (70%) and validation (30%) groups. Thirty-eight Elixhauser comorbidities were identified and included in multivariable regression to discriminate in-hospital mortality. Weight for each comorbidity was assigned and single indices, Li CABG Mortality Index (LCMI) and Li PCI Mortality Index (LPMI), were developed. RESULTS: Mortality discrimination by LCMI approached adequacy (c-statistic=0.691, 95% CI=0.682-0.701) and was comparable to multivariable regression with comorbidities (c-statistic=0.685, 95% CI=0.675-0.694). LCMI discrimination performed significantly better than Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (ECI) (c-statistic=0.621, 95% CI=0.611-0.631) and can be further improved by adjusting age (c-statistic=0.721, 95% CI=0.712-0.730). All models were well-calibrated (Brier score=0.021-0.022). LPMI moderately discriminated in-hospital mortality (cstatistic=0.666, 95% CI=0.660-0.672) and performed significantly better than ECI (c-statistic=0.610, 95% CI=0.604-0.616). LPMI performed better than the all-comorbidity multivariable regression (c-statistic=0.658, 95% CI=0.652-0.663). After age adjustment, LPMI discrimination was significantly increased and was approaching adequacy (c-statistic=0.695, 95% CI=0.690-0.701). All models were well-calibrated (Brier score=0.025-0.026). CONCLUSIONS: LCMI and LPMI effectively discriminated and predicted in-hospital mortality. These indices were validated and performed superior to ECI.