TY - JOUR
T1 - Global spatially explicit yield gap time trends reveal regions at risk of future crop yield stagnation
AU - Gerber, James S
AU - Ray, Deepak
AU - Makowski, David
AU - Butler, Ethan E.
AU - Mueller, Nathaniel D.
AU - West, Paul C
AU - Johnson, Justin A.
AU - Polasky, Stephen
AU - Story, Leah H
AU - Siebert, Stefan
AU - Sloat, Lindsey
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2024.
PY - 2024/2
Y1 - 2024/2
N2 - Yield gaps, here defined as the difference between actual and attainable yields, provide a framework for assessing opportunities to increase agricultural productivity. Previous global assessments, centred on a single year, were unable to identify temporal variation. Here we provide a spatially and temporally comprehensive analysis of yield gaps for ten major crops from 1975 to 2010. Yield gaps have widened steadily over most areas for the eight annual crops and remained static for sugar cane and oil palm. We developed a three-category typology to differentiate regions of ‘steady growth’ in actual and attainable yields, ‘stalled floor’ where yield is stagnated and ‘ceiling pressure’ where yield gaps are closing. Over 60% of maize area is experiencing ‘steady growth’, in contrast to ∼12% for rice. Rice and wheat have 84% and 56% of area, respectively, experiencing ‘ceiling pressure’. We show that ‘ceiling pressure’ correlates with subsequent yield stagnation, signalling risks for multiple countries currently realizing gains from yield growth.
AB - Yield gaps, here defined as the difference between actual and attainable yields, provide a framework for assessing opportunities to increase agricultural productivity. Previous global assessments, centred on a single year, were unable to identify temporal variation. Here we provide a spatially and temporally comprehensive analysis of yield gaps for ten major crops from 1975 to 2010. Yield gaps have widened steadily over most areas for the eight annual crops and remained static for sugar cane and oil palm. We developed a three-category typology to differentiate regions of ‘steady growth’ in actual and attainable yields, ‘stalled floor’ where yield is stagnated and ‘ceiling pressure’ where yield gaps are closing. Over 60% of maize area is experiencing ‘steady growth’, in contrast to ∼12% for rice. Rice and wheat have 84% and 56% of area, respectively, experiencing ‘ceiling pressure’. We show that ‘ceiling pressure’ correlates with subsequent yield stagnation, signalling risks for multiple countries currently realizing gains from yield growth.
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U2 - 10.1038/s43016-023-00913-8
DO - 10.1038/s43016-023-00913-8
M3 - Article
C2 - 38279050
AN - SCOPUS:85183190071
SN - 2662-1355
VL - 5
SP - 125
EP - 135
JO - Nature Food
JF - Nature Food
IS - 2
ER -