Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia

Bronwen L. Konecky; Nicholas P. McKay; Georgina M. Falster; Samantha L. Stevenson; Matt J. Fischer; Alyssa R. Atwood; Diane M. Thompson; Matthew D. Jones; Jonathan J. Tyler; Kristine L. DeLong; Belen Martrat; Elizabeth K. Thomas; Jessica L. Conroy; Sylvia G. Dee; Lukas Jonkers; Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova); Zoltán Kern; Thomas Opel; Trevor J. Porter; Hussein R. Sayani; Grzegorz Skrzypek; Nerilie J. Abram; Kerstin Braun; Matthieu Carré; Olivier Cartapanis; Laia Comas-Bru; Mark A. Curran; Emilie P. Dassié; Michael Deininger; Dmitry V. Divine; Alessandro Incarbona; Darrell S. Kaufman; Nikita Kaushal; Robert M. Klaebe; Hannah R. Kolus; Guillaume Leduc; Shreyas R. Managave; P. Graham Mortyn; Andrew D. Moy; Anais J. Orsi; Judson W. Partin; Heidi A. Roop; Marie Alexandrine Sicre; Lucien von Gunten; Kei Yoshimura

doi:10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3

Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia

Bronwen L. Konecky, Nicholas P. McKay, Georgina M. Falster, Samantha L. Stevenson, Matt J. Fischer, Alyssa R. Atwood, Diane M. Thompson, Matthew D. Jones, Jonathan J. Tyler, Kristine L. DeLong, Belen Martrat, Elizabeth K. Thomas, Jessica L. Conroy, Sylvia G. Dee, Lukas Jonkers, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), Zoltán Kern, Thomas Opel, Trevor J. Porter, Hussein R. SayaniGrzegorz Skrzypek, Nerilie J. Abram, Kerstin Braun, Matthieu Carré, Olivier Cartapanis, Laia Comas-Bru, Mark A. Curran, Emilie P. Dassié, Michael Deininger, Dmitry V. Divine, Alessandro Incarbona, Darrell S. Kaufman, Nikita Kaushal, Robert M. Klaebe, Hannah R. Kolus, Guillaume Leduc, Shreyas R. Managave, P. Graham Mortyn, Andrew D. Moy, Anais J. Orsi, Judson W. Partin, Heidi A. Roop, Marie Alexandrine Sicre, Lucien von Gunten, Kei Yoshimura

Soil, Water, and Climate

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Abstract

The response of the global water cycle to changes in global surface temperature remains an outstanding question in future climate projections and in past climate reconstructions. The stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope compositions of precipitation (δ_precip), meteoric water (δ_MW) and seawater (δ_SW) integrate processes from microphysical to global scales and thus are uniquely positioned to track global hydroclimate variations. Here we evaluate global hydroclimate during the past 2,000 years using a globally distributed compilation of proxies for δ_precip, δ_MW and δ_SW. We show that global mean surface temperature exerted a coherent influence on global δ_precip and δ_MW throughout the past two millennia, driven by global ocean evaporation and condensation processes, with lower values during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850) and higher values after the onset of anthropogenic warming (~1850). The Pacific Walker Circulation is a predominant source of regional variability, particularly since 1850. Our results demonstrate rapid adjustments in global precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns—within decades—as the planet warms and cools.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	997-1004
Number of pages	8
Journal	Nature Geoscience
Volume	16
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3
State	Published - Nov 2023

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© 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

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Konecky, B. L., McKay, N. P., Falster, G. M., Stevenson, S. L., Fischer, M. J., Atwood, A. R., Thompson, D. M., Jones, M. D., Tyler, J. J., DeLong, K. L., Martrat, B., Thomas, E. K., Conroy, J. L., Dee, S. G., Jonkers, L., Churakova (Sidorova), O. V., Kern, Z., Opel, T., Porter, T. J., ... Yoshimura, K. (2023). Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia. Nature Geoscience, 16(11), 997-1004. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3

Konecky, BL, McKay, NP, Falster, GM, Stevenson, SL, Fischer, MJ, Atwood, AR, Thompson, DM, Jones, MD, Tyler, JJ, DeLong, KL, Martrat, B, Thomas, EK, Conroy, JL, Dee, SG, Jonkers, L, Churakova (Sidorova), OV, Kern, Z, Opel, T, Porter, TJ, Sayani, HR, Skrzypek, G, Abram, NJ, Braun, K, Carré, M, Cartapanis, O, Comas-Bru, L, Curran, MA, Dassié, EP, Deininger, M, Divine, DV, Incarbona, A, Kaufman, DS, Kaushal, N, Klaebe, RM, Kolus, HR, Leduc, G, Managave, SR, Mortyn, PG, Moy, AD, Orsi, AJ, Partin, JW, Roop, HA, Sicre, MA, von Gunten, L & Yoshimura, K 2023, 'Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia', Nature Geoscience, vol. 16, no. 11, pp. 997-1004. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3

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abstract = "The response of the global water cycle to changes in global surface temperature remains an outstanding question in future climate projections and in past climate reconstructions. The stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope compositions of precipitation (δprecip), meteoric water (δMW) and seawater (δSW) integrate processes from microphysical to global scales and thus are uniquely positioned to track global hydroclimate variations. Here we evaluate global hydroclimate during the past 2,000 years using a globally distributed compilation of proxies for δprecip, δMW and δSW. We show that global mean surface temperature exerted a coherent influence on global δprecip and δMW throughout the past two millennia, driven by global ocean evaporation and condensation processes, with lower values during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850) and higher values after the onset of anthropogenic warming (~1850). The Pacific Walker Circulation is a predominant source of regional variability, particularly since 1850. Our results demonstrate rapid adjustments in global precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns—within decades—as the planet warms and cools.",

author = "Konecky, {Bronwen L.} and McKay, {Nicholas P.} and Falster, {Georgina M.} and Stevenson, {Samantha L.} and Fischer, {Matt J.} and Atwood, {Alyssa R.} and Thompson, {Diane M.} and Jones, {Matthew D.} and Tyler, {Jonathan J.} and DeLong, {Kristine L.} and Belen Martrat and Thomas, {Elizabeth K.} and Conroy, {Jessica L.} and Dee, {Sylvia G.} and Lukas Jonkers and {Churakova (Sidorova)}, {Olga V.} and Zolt{\'a}n Kern and Thomas Opel and Porter, {Trevor J.} and Sayani, {Hussein R.} and Grzegorz Skrzypek and Abram, {Nerilie J.} and Kerstin Braun and Matthieu Carr{\'e} and Olivier Cartapanis and Laia Comas-Bru and Curran, {Mark A.} and Dassi{\'e}, {Emilie P.} and Michael Deininger and Divine, {Dmitry V.} and Alessandro Incarbona and Kaufman, {Darrell S.} and Nikita Kaushal and Klaebe, {Robert M.} and Kolus, {Hannah R.} and Guillaume Leduc and Managave, {Shreyas R.} and Mortyn, {P. Graham} and Moy, {Andrew D.} and Orsi, {Anais J.} and Partin, {Judson W.} and Roop, {Heidi A.} and Sicre, {Marie Alexandrine} and {von Gunten}, Lucien and Kei Yoshimura",

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AU - Konecky, Bronwen L.

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AU - Stevenson, Samantha L.

AU - Fischer, Matt J.

AU - Atwood, Alyssa R.

AU - Thompson, Diane M.

AU - Jones, Matthew D.

AU - Tyler, Jonathan J.

AU - DeLong, Kristine L.

AU - Martrat, Belen

AU - Thomas, Elizabeth K.

AU - Conroy, Jessica L.

AU - Dee, Sylvia G.

AU - Jonkers, Lukas

AU - Churakova (Sidorova), Olga V.

AU - Kern, Zoltán

AU - Opel, Thomas

AU - Porter, Trevor J.

AU - Sayani, Hussein R.

AU - Skrzypek, Grzegorz

AU - Abram, Nerilie J.

AU - Braun, Kerstin

AU - Carré, Matthieu

AU - Cartapanis, Olivier

AU - Comas-Bru, Laia

AU - Curran, Mark A.

AU - Dassié, Emilie P.

AU - Deininger, Michael

AU - Divine, Dmitry V.

AU - Incarbona, Alessandro

AU - Kaufman, Darrell S.

AU - Kaushal, Nikita

AU - Klaebe, Robert M.

AU - Kolus, Hannah R.

AU - Leduc, Guillaume

AU - Managave, Shreyas R.

AU - Mortyn, P. Graham

AU - Moy, Andrew D.

AU - Orsi, Anais J.

AU - Partin, Judson W.

AU - Roop, Heidi A.

AU - Sicre, Marie Alexandrine

AU - von Gunten, Lucien

AU - Yoshimura, Kei

PY - 2023/11

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N2 - The response of the global water cycle to changes in global surface temperature remains an outstanding question in future climate projections and in past climate reconstructions. The stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope compositions of precipitation (δprecip), meteoric water (δMW) and seawater (δSW) integrate processes from microphysical to global scales and thus are uniquely positioned to track global hydroclimate variations. Here we evaluate global hydroclimate during the past 2,000 years using a globally distributed compilation of proxies for δprecip, δMW and δSW. We show that global mean surface temperature exerted a coherent influence on global δprecip and δMW throughout the past two millennia, driven by global ocean evaporation and condensation processes, with lower values during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850) and higher values after the onset of anthropogenic warming (~1850). The Pacific Walker Circulation is a predominant source of regional variability, particularly since 1850. Our results demonstrate rapid adjustments in global precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns—within decades—as the planet warms and cools.

AB - The response of the global water cycle to changes in global surface temperature remains an outstanding question in future climate projections and in past climate reconstructions. The stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope compositions of precipitation (δprecip), meteoric water (δMW) and seawater (δSW) integrate processes from microphysical to global scales and thus are uniquely positioned to track global hydroclimate variations. Here we evaluate global hydroclimate during the past 2,000 years using a globally distributed compilation of proxies for δprecip, δMW and δSW. We show that global mean surface temperature exerted a coherent influence on global δprecip and δMW throughout the past two millennia, driven by global ocean evaporation and condensation processes, with lower values during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850) and higher values after the onset of anthropogenic warming (~1850). The Pacific Walker Circulation is a predominant source of regional variability, particularly since 1850. Our results demonstrate rapid adjustments in global precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns—within decades—as the planet warms and cools.

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Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia

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