How Patients Distinguish Between Clinical and Administrative Predictive Models in Health Care

OBJECTIVES: To understand patient perceptions of specific applications of predictive models in health care. STUDY DESIGN: Original, cross-sectional national survey. METHODS: We conducted a national online survey of US adults with the National Opinion Research Center from November to December 2021. Measures of internal consistency were used to identify how patients differentiate between clinical and administrative predictive models. Multivariable logistic regressions were used to identify relationships between comfort with various types of predictive models and patient demographics, perceptions of privacy protections, and experiences in the health care system. RESULTS: A total of 1541 respondents completed the survey. After excluding observations with missing data for the variables of interest, the final analytic sample was 1488. We found that patients differentiate between clinical and administrative predictive models. Comfort with prediction of bill payment and missed appointments was especially low (21.6% and 36.6%, respectively). Comfort was higher with clinical predictive models, such as predicting stroke in an emergency (55.8%). Experiences of discrimination were significant negative predictors of comfort with administrative predictive models. Health system transparency around privacy policies was a significant positive predictor of comfort with both clinical and administrative predictive models. CONCLUSIONS: Patients are more comfortable with clinical applications of predictive models than administrative ones. Privacy protections and transparency about how health care systems protect patient data may facilitate patient comfort with these technologies. However, larger inequities and negative experiences in health care remain important for how patients perceive administrative applications of prediction.