Illegal product purchasing in the experimental tobacco marketplace: Effects of menthol cigarette and cigarette ventilation ban

Background: Tobacco regulations may increase demand for illegal cigarettes. We use the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace to estimate the impact of banning menthol cigarettes (Experiment 1) and decreasing allowable cigarette filter ventilation levels (Experiment 2). Methods: Crowdsourced participants were randomized into one of four groups (2×2 factorial design). Experiment 1 included menthol availability (yes/no) by purchasing option (legal only vs illegal available). Experiment 2 included filter-vented cigarettes availability (yes/no) by purchasing option (legal only vs illegal available). Participants were given an individualized budget to purchase tobacco. Percent budget spent was the outcome measure. Results: Experiment 1, with a legal marketplace only, non-menthol cigarette purchasing was lower (p=0.010) and electronic-cigarette purchasing was higher (p=0.016), when cigarettes were banned compared to when they were available. With an illegal marketplace, switching to legal non-menthol cigarettes was less likely (p<0.001) and purchasing illegal menthol cigarettes was higher (p<0.001), when cigarettes were banned compared to when they were available. Experiment 2, with a legal marketplace only, cigarette purchasing was lower (p=0.010), when the participant's filtered vented cigarettes were banned compared to when they were available. With an illegal marketplace, purchasing the legal low-ventilated cigarette option was lower (p<0.001) and significant differences in illegal filter-vented cigarette purchasing were not observed, when their filter-vented cigarettes were banned compared to when they were available legally. Conclusions: Without an illegal option, both restrictions decreased cigarette purchasing, but the menthol ban increased e-cigarette purchasing. With an illegal option, a menthol ban increased illegal cigarette purchasing, but decreasing filter ventilation did not.