Multivariate linear mixture models for the prediction of febrile seizure risk and recurrence: a prospective case–control study

Our goal was to identify highly accurate empirical models for the prediction of the risk of febrile seizure (FS) and FS recurrence. In a prospective, three-arm, case–control study, we enrolled 162 children (age 25.8 ± 17.1 months old, 71 females). Participants formed one case group (patients with FS) and two control groups (febrile patients without seizures and healthy controls). The impact of blood iron status, peak body temperature, and participants’ demographics on FS risk and recurrence was investigated with univariate and multivariate statistics. Serum iron concentration, iron saturation, and unsaturated iron-binding capacity differed between the three investigated groups (p_FWE < 0.05). These serum analytes were key variables in the design of novel multivariate linear mixture models. The models classified FS risk with higher accuracy than univariate approaches. The designed bi-linear classifier achieved a sensitivity/specificity of 82%/89% and was closest to the gold-standard classifier. A multivariate model assessing FS recurrence provided a difference (p_FWE < 0.05) with a separating sensitivity/specificity of 72%/69%. Iron deficiency, height percentile, and age were significant FS risk factors. In addition, height percentile and hemoglobin concentration were linked to FS recurrence. Novel multivariate models utilizing blood iron status and demographic variables predicted FS risk and recurrence among infants and young children with fever.