Persistence of b-Cell Responsiveness for Over Two Years in Autoantibody-Positive Children With Marked Metabolic Impairment at Screening

OBJECTIVE We studied longitudinal differences between progressors and nonprogressors to type 1 diabetes with similar and substantial baseline risk. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Changes in 2-h oral glucose tolerance test indices were used to examine variabil-ity in diabetes progression in the Diabetes Prevention Trial–Type 1 (DPT-1) study (n = 246) and Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study (TNPTP) (n = 503) among autoantibody (Ab)⁺ children (aged <18.0 years) with similar baseline metabolic impairment (DPT-1 Risk Score [DPTRS] of 6.5–7.5), as well as in TNPTP Ab² children (n = 94). RESULTS Longitudinal analyses revealed annualized area under the curve (AUC) of C-pep-tide increases in nonprogressors versus decreases in progressors (P £ 0.026 for DPT-1 and TNPTP). Vector indices for AUC glucose and AUC C-peptide changes (on a two-dimensional grid) also differed significantly (P < 0.001). Despite marked baseline metabolic impairment of nonprogressors, changes in AUC C-peptide, AUC glucose, AUC C-peptide–to–AUC glucose ratio (AUC ratio), and Index60 did not differ from Ab² relatives during follow-up. Divergence between nonprogressors and progressors occurred by 6 months from baseline in both cohorts (AUC glucose, P £ 0.007; AUC ratio, P £ 0.034; Index60, P < 0.001; vector indices of change, P < 0.001). Differences in 6-month change were positively associated with greater diabetes risk (respectively, P < 0.001, P £ 0.019, P < 0.001, and P < 0.001) in DPT-1 and TNPTP, except AUC ratio, which was inversely associated with risk (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Novel findings show that even with similarly abnormal baseline risk, progres-sors had appreciably more metabolic impairment than nonprogressors within 6 months and that the measures showing impairment were predictive of type 1 diabetes. Longitudinal metabolic patterns did not differ between nonprogressors and Ab² relatives, suggesting persistent b-cell responsiveness in nonprogressors.