TY - JOUR
T1 - Population changes, weather, and congestion
T2 - Exploring declines in use of Chicago’s elevated trail
AU - Lindsey, Greg
AU - Qi, Yunlei
AU - Gobster, Paul
AU - Sachdeva, Sonya
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, Sagamore Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - This research note examines possible explanations for declines in use of Chicago’s 606 Trail between 2016, its first complete year of operation, and 2018. Hypotheses include population changes near the trail, adverse weather in 2017-2018, and congestion effects. To evaluate these hypotheses, respectively, we use Census data, traffic counts, weather data, and regression modeling; and level-of-service (LOS) grades for peak use periods. We show that population changes were unlikely to have contributed to the use reductions and that, after controlling for weather effects, daily use still was significantly lower in 2017-2018 relative to 2016. Although LOS grades of “F” characterize much of weekend daytime use in summers, use reductions also occurred during periods with better LOS. None of the hypotheses fully explains the use declines. Field surveys are needed to explore additional, potential explanations including changes in preferences and perceptions of residents in gentrifying neighborhoods and the loss of a novelty effect.
AB - This research note examines possible explanations for declines in use of Chicago’s 606 Trail between 2016, its first complete year of operation, and 2018. Hypotheses include population changes near the trail, adverse weather in 2017-2018, and congestion effects. To evaluate these hypotheses, respectively, we use Census data, traffic counts, weather data, and regression modeling; and level-of-service (LOS) grades for peak use periods. We show that population changes were unlikely to have contributed to the use reductions and that, after controlling for weather effects, daily use still was significantly lower in 2017-2018 relative to 2016. Although LOS grades of “F” characterize much of weekend daytime use in summers, use reductions also occurred during periods with better LOS. None of the hypotheses fully explains the use declines. Field surveys are needed to explore additional, potential explanations including changes in preferences and perceptions of residents in gentrifying neighborhoods and the loss of a novelty effect.
KW - Demand
KW - Monitoring
KW - Trail
KW - Use
KW - Weather
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85105123055&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85105123055&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.18666/JPRA-2019-10063
DO - 10.18666/JPRA-2019-10063
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85105123055
SN - 0735-1968
VL - 38
SP - 127
EP - 140
JO - Journal of Park and Recreation Administration
JF - Journal of Park and Recreation Administration
IS - 1
ER -