Recent climate and ice-sheet changes in West Antarctica compared with the past 2,000 years

Eric J. Steig; Qinghua Ding; James W.C. White; Marcel Küttel; Summer B. Rupper; Thomas A. Neumann; Peter D. Neff; Ailie J.E. Gallant; Paul A. Mayewski; Kendrick C. Taylor; Georg Hoffmann; Daniel A. Dixon; Spruce W. Schoenemann; Bradley R. Markle; Tyler J. Fudge; David P. Schneider; Andrew J. Schauer; Rebecca P. Teel; Bruce H. Vaughn; Landon Burgener; Jessica Williams; Elena Korotkikh

doi:10.1038/ngeo1778

Recent climate and ice-sheet changes in West Antarctica compared with the past 2,000 years

Eric J. Steig, Qinghua Ding, James W.C. White, Marcel Küttel, Summer B. Rupper, Thomas A. Neumann, Peter D. Neff, Ailie J.E. Gallant, Paul A. Mayewski, Kendrick C. Taylor, Georg Hoffmann, Daniel A. Dixon, Spruce W. Schoenemann, Bradley R. Markle, Tyler J. Fudge, David P. Schneider, Andrew J. Schauer, Rebecca P. Teel, Bruce H. Vaughn, Landon BurgenerJessica Williams, Elena Korotkikh

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Abstract

Changes in atmospheric circulation over the past five decades have enhanced the wind-driven inflow of warm ocean water onto the Antarctic continental shelf, where it melts ice shelves from below. Atmospheric circulation changes have also caused rapid warming over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and contributed to declining sea-ice cover in the adjacent Amundsen-Bellingshausen seas. It is unknown whether these changes are part of a longer-term trend. Here, we use water-isotope (δ 18 O) data from an array of ice-core records to place recent West Antarctic climate changes in the context of the past two millennia. We find that the δ 18 O of West Antarctic precipitation has increased significantly in the past 50 years, in parallel with the trend in temperature, and was probably more elevated during the 1990s than at any other time during the past 200 years. However, δ 18 O anomalies comparable to those of recent decades occur about 1% of the time over the past 2,000 years. General circulation model simulations suggest that recent trends in δ 18 O and climate in West Antarctica cannot be distinguished from decadal variability that originates in the tropics. We conclude that the uncertain trajectory of tropical climate variability represents a significant source of uncertainty in projections of West Antarctic climate and ice-sheet change.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	372-375
Number of pages	4
Journal	Nature Geoscience
Volume	6
Issue number	5
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1778
State	Published - May 2013
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was supported by the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs (grant numbers 0537930, 0837988, 0963924 and 1043092 to E.J.S.; 05379853 and 1043167 to J.W.C.W.; 0944730 to S.B.R.; 0230396, 0440817, 0944348 and 0944266 to K.C.T.; 0096305, 9316564, 0096299, 0424589, 0439589, 063740, 063650 and 0837883 to P.A.M.; 0838871 to D.P.S.). NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. We thank A. Orsi, J. Bautista and J. Flaherty.

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Steig, E. J., Ding, Q., White, J. W. C., Küttel, M., Rupper, S. B., Neumann, T. A., Neff, P. D., Gallant, A. J. E., Mayewski, P. A., Taylor, K. C., Hoffmann, G., Dixon, D. A., Schoenemann, S. W., Markle, B. R., Fudge, T. J., Schneider, D. P., Schauer, A. J., Teel, R. P., Vaughn, B. H., ... Korotkikh, E. (2013). Recent climate and ice-sheet changes in West Antarctica compared with the past 2,000 years. Nature Geoscience, 6(5), 372-375. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1778

Steig, EJ, Ding, Q, White, JWC, Küttel, M, Rupper, SB, Neumann, TA, Neff, PD, Gallant, AJE, Mayewski, PA, Taylor, KC, Hoffmann, G, Dixon, DA, Schoenemann, SW, Markle, BR, Fudge, TJ, Schneider, DP, Schauer, AJ, Teel, RP, Vaughn, BH, Burgener, L, Williams, J & Korotkikh, E 2013, 'Recent climate and ice-sheet changes in West Antarctica compared with the past 2,000 years', Nature Geoscience, vol. 6, no. 5, pp. 372-375. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1778

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title = "Recent climate and ice-sheet changes in West Antarctica compared with the past 2,000 years",

abstract = "Changes in atmospheric circulation over the past five decades have enhanced the wind-driven inflow of warm ocean water onto the Antarctic continental shelf, where it melts ice shelves from below. Atmospheric circulation changes have also caused rapid warming over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and contributed to declining sea-ice cover in the adjacent Amundsen-Bellingshausen seas. It is unknown whether these changes are part of a longer-term trend. Here, we use water-isotope (δ 18 O) data from an array of ice-core records to place recent West Antarctic climate changes in the context of the past two millennia. We find that the δ 18 O of West Antarctic precipitation has increased significantly in the past 50 years, in parallel with the trend in temperature, and was probably more elevated during the 1990s than at any other time during the past 200 years. However, δ 18 O anomalies comparable to those of recent decades occur about 1% of the time over the past 2,000 years. General circulation model simulations suggest that recent trends in δ 18 O and climate in West Antarctica cannot be distinguished from decadal variability that originates in the tropics. We conclude that the uncertain trajectory of tropical climate variability represents a significant source of uncertainty in projections of West Antarctic climate and ice-sheet change.",

author = "Steig, {Eric J.} and Qinghua Ding and White, {James W.C.} and Marcel K{\"u}ttel and Rupper, {Summer B.} and Neumann, {Thomas A.} and Neff, {Peter D.} and Gallant, {Ailie J.E.} and Mayewski, {Paul A.} and Taylor, {Kendrick C.} and Georg Hoffmann and Dixon, {Daniel A.} and Schoenemann, {Spruce W.} and Markle, {Bradley R.} and Fudge, {Tyler J.} and Schneider, {David P.} and Schauer, {Andrew J.} and Teel, {Rebecca P.} and Vaughn, {Bruce H.} and Landon Burgener and Jessica Williams and Elena Korotkikh",

note = "Funding Information: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs (grant numbers 0537930, 0837988, 0963924 and 1043092 to E.J.S.; 05379853 and 1043167 to J.W.C.W.; 0944730 to S.B.R.; 0230396, 0440817, 0944348 and 0944266 to K.C.T.; 0096305, 9316564, 0096299, 0424589, 0439589, 063740, 063650 and 0837883 to P.A.M.; 0838871 to D.P.S.). NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. We thank A. Orsi, J. Bautista and J. Flaherty.",

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AU - Küttel, Marcel

AU - Rupper, Summer B.

AU - Neumann, Thomas A.

AU - Neff, Peter D.

AU - Gallant, Ailie J.E.

AU - Mayewski, Paul A.

AU - Taylor, Kendrick C.

AU - Hoffmann, Georg

AU - Dixon, Daniel A.

AU - Schoenemann, Spruce W.

AU - Markle, Bradley R.

AU - Fudge, Tyler J.

AU - Schneider, David P.

AU - Schauer, Andrew J.

AU - Teel, Rebecca P.

AU - Vaughn, Bruce H.

AU - Burgener, Landon

AU - Williams, Jessica

AU - Korotkikh, Elena

N1 - Funding Information: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs (grant numbers 0537930, 0837988, 0963924 and 1043092 to E.J.S.; 05379853 and 1043167 to J.W.C.W.; 0944730 to S.B.R.; 0230396, 0440817, 0944348 and 0944266 to K.C.T.; 0096305, 9316564, 0096299, 0424589, 0439589, 063740, 063650 and 0837883 to P.A.M.; 0838871 to D.P.S.). NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. We thank A. Orsi, J. Bautista and J. Flaherty.

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Recent climate and ice-sheet changes in West Antarctica compared with the past 2,000 years

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