Rural and urban differences in welfare exits: Minnesota evidence 1986-1996

This article examines differences between rural and urban counties in the duration of welfare spells. We report evidence that suggests that parents from farming-dependent counties and rural counties are more likely to have shorter spells on welfare. The evidence appears consistent with the literature on rural low-income families in that there may be a concentration of low-wage jobs in rural counties. The difference between rural and urban areas is relevant to welfare policy as it pertains to caseload numbers, parents more likely to reach the sixty-month time limit, and parents more likely to trigger time-based policies, such as employment search. The study uses administrative data of Aid to Families With Dependent Children recipients from the state of Minnesota between 1986 and 1996. The methodology includes constructing descriptive statistics, calculating Kaplan-Meier estimates, and performing a Cox regression analysis with robustness checks across all three methods.