Simple Nutrient-Based Rules vs. a Nutritionally Rich Plant-Centered Diet in Prediction of Future Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke: Prospective Observational Study in the US

To better understand nutrition paradigm shift from nutrients to foods and dietary patterns, we compared associations of a nutrient-based blood cholesterol-lowering diet vs. a food-based plant-centered diet with risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. Participants were 4701 adults aged 18–30 years and free of cardiovascular disease at baseline, followed for clinical events from 1985 and 86 to 2018. A plant-centered diet was represented by higher A Priori Diet Quality Score (APDQS). A blood cholesterol-lowering diet was represented by lower Keys Score. Proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR). Higher APDQS showed a nutrient-dense composition that is low in saturated fat but high in fiber, vitamins and minerals. Keys Score and APDQS changes were each inversely associated with concurrent plasma low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) change. Over follow-up, 116 CHD and 80 stroke events occurred. LDL-C predicted CHD, but not stroke. APDQS, but not Keys Score, predicted lower risk of CHD and of stroke. Adjusted HRs (95% CIs) for each 1-SD higher APDQS were 0.73 (0.55–0.96) for CHD and 0.70 (0.50–0.99) for stroke. Neither low dietary fat nor low dietary carbohydrate predicted these events. Our findings support the ongoing shift in diet messages for cardiovascular prevention.