Spatio-temporal cluster analysis and transmission drivers for Peste des Petits Ruminants in Uganda

Joseph Nkamwesiga; Fedor Korennoy; Paul Lumu; Peninah Nsamba; Frank Nobert Mwiine; Kristina Roesel; Barbara Wieland; Andres Perez; Henry Kiara; Dennis Muhanguzi

doi:10.1111/tbed.14499

Spatio-temporal cluster analysis and transmission drivers for Peste des Petits Ruminants in Uganda

Joseph Nkamwesiga, Fedor Korennoy, Paul Lumu, Peninah Nsamba, Frank Nobert Mwiine, Kristina Roesel, Barbara Wieland, Andres Perez, Henry Kiara, Dennis Muhanguzi

Veterinary Population Medicine

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

7 Scopus citations

Abstract

Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is a transboundary, highly contagious, and fatal disease of small ruminants. PPR causes global annual economic losses of between USD 1.5 and 2.0 billion across more than 70 affected countries. Despite the commercial availability of effective PPR vaccines, lack of financial and technical commitment to PPR control coupled with a dearth of refined PPR risk profiling data in different endemic countries has perpetuated PPR virus transmission. In Uganda, over the past 5 years, PPR has extended from northeastern Uganda (Karamoja) with sporadic incursions in other districts /regions. To identify disease cluster hotspot trends that would facilitate the design and implementation of PPR risk-based control methods (including vaccination), we employed the space–time cube approach to identify trends in the clustering of outbreaks in neighbouring space–time cells using confirmed PPR outbreak report data (2007–2020). We also used negative binomial and logistic regression models and identified high small ruminant density, extended road length, low annual precipitation and high soil water index as the most important drivers of PPR in Uganda. The study identified (with 90–99% confidence) five PPR disease hotspot trend categories across subregions of Uganda. Diminishing hotspots were identified in the Karamoja region whereas consecutive, sporadic, new and emerging hotspots were identified in central and southwestern districts of Uganda. Inter-district and cross-border small ruminant movement facilitated by longer road stretches and animal comingling precipitate PPR outbreaks as well as PPR virus spread from its initial Karamoja focus to the central and southwestern Uganda. There is therefore urgent need to prioritize considerable vaccination coverage to obtain the required herd immunity among small ruminants in the new hotspot areas to block transmission to further emerging hotspots. Findings of this study provide a basis for more robust timing and prioritization of control measures including vaccination.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	e1642-e1658
Journal	Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
Volume	69
Issue number	5
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.14499
State	Published - Sep 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) through the project Boosting Uganda's investment in livestock development (BUILD) (Grant number BMZ001). Additional support was received from the CGIAR Research Programs on Livestock and Agriculture for Nutrition and Health. We also acknowledge the CGIAR Fund Donors (https://www.cgiar.org/funders). Drs Peninah Nsamba and Dennis Muhanguzi were funded by the Research and innovations Fund (RIF) of Makerere University (grant number MAK/DVCFA/481/19) We would like to thank Ms Esther Nambo, Ms Mary Nanfuka Lovincer and Mr Franklin Mayanja of the National Disease Diagnosis and Epidemiology Centre (NADDEC), Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industries, and Fisheries (MAAIF) for their technical support during acquisition of the passive disease reports and laboratory reports. We are sincerely grateful to the Dahlem Research School (DRS) and Univ.-Prof. Dr. Klaus Osterrieder for PhD supervision of Joseph Nkamwesiga. Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.

Funding Information:
This work was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) through the project Boosting Uganda's investment in livestock development (BUILD) (Grant number BMZ001). Additional support was received from the CGIAR Research Programs on Livestock and Agriculture for Nutrition and Health. We also acknowledge the CGIAR Fund Donors ( https://www.cgiar.org/funders ). Drs Peninah Nsamba and Dennis Muhanguzi were funded by the Research and innovations Fund (RIF) of Makerere University (grant number ) MAK/DVCFA/481/19

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases published by Wiley-VCH GmbH.

Keywords

GIS
Peste des Petits Ruminants
Uganda
hotspots
regression models
transmission drivers

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title = "Spatio-temporal cluster analysis and transmission drivers for Peste des Petits Ruminants in Uganda",

abstract = "Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is a transboundary, highly contagious, and fatal disease of small ruminants. PPR causes global annual economic losses of between USD 1.5 and 2.0 billion across more than 70 affected countries. Despite the commercial availability of effective PPR vaccines, lack of financial and technical commitment to PPR control coupled with a dearth of refined PPR risk profiling data in different endemic countries has perpetuated PPR virus transmission. In Uganda, over the past 5 years, PPR has extended from northeastern Uganda (Karamoja) with sporadic incursions in other districts /regions. To identify disease cluster hotspot trends that would facilitate the design and implementation of PPR risk-based control methods (including vaccination), we employed the space–time cube approach to identify trends in the clustering of outbreaks in neighbouring space–time cells using confirmed PPR outbreak report data (2007–2020). We also used negative binomial and logistic regression models and identified high small ruminant density, extended road length, low annual precipitation and high soil water index as the most important drivers of PPR in Uganda. The study identified (with 90–99% confidence) five PPR disease hotspot trend categories across subregions of Uganda. Diminishing hotspots were identified in the Karamoja region whereas consecutive, sporadic, new and emerging hotspots were identified in central and southwestern districts of Uganda. Inter-district and cross-border small ruminant movement facilitated by longer road stretches and animal comingling precipitate PPR outbreaks as well as PPR virus spread from its initial Karamoja focus to the central and southwestern Uganda. There is therefore urgent need to prioritize considerable vaccination coverage to obtain the required herd immunity among small ruminants in the new hotspot areas to block transmission to further emerging hotspots. Findings of this study provide a basis for more robust timing and prioritization of control measures including vaccination.",

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note = "Funding Information: This work was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) through the project Boosting Uganda's investment in livestock development (BUILD) (Grant number BMZ001). Additional support was received from the CGIAR Research Programs on Livestock and Agriculture for Nutrition and Health. We also acknowledge the CGIAR Fund Donors (https://www.cgiar.org/funders). Drs Peninah Nsamba and Dennis Muhanguzi were funded by the Research and innovations Fund (RIF) of Makerere University (grant number MAK/DVCFA/481/19) We would like to thank Ms Esther Nambo, Ms Mary Nanfuka Lovincer and Mr Franklin Mayanja of the National Disease Diagnosis and Epidemiology Centre (NADDEC), Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industries, and Fisheries (MAAIF) for their technical support during acquisition of the passive disease reports and laboratory reports. We are sincerely grateful to the Dahlem Research School (DRS) and Univ.-Prof. Dr. Klaus Osterrieder for PhD supervision of Joseph Nkamwesiga. Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. Funding Information: This work was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) through the project Boosting Uganda's investment in livestock development (BUILD) (Grant number BMZ001). Additional support was received from the CGIAR Research Programs on Livestock and Agriculture for Nutrition and Health. We also acknowledge the CGIAR Fund Donors ( https://www.cgiar.org/funders ). Drs Peninah Nsamba and Dennis Muhanguzi were funded by the Research and innovations Fund (RIF) of Makerere University (grant number ) MAK/DVCFA/481/19 Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Authors. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases published by Wiley-VCH GmbH.",

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Spatio-temporal cluster analysis and transmission drivers for Peste des Petits Ruminants in Uganda

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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Access

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