TY - JOUR
T1 - The critical benefits of snowpack insulation and snowmelt for winter wheat productivity
AU - Zhu, Peng
AU - Kim, Taegon
AU - Jin, Zhenong
AU - Lin, Chenxi
AU - Wang, Xuhui
AU - Ciais, Philippe
AU - Mueller, Nathaniel D.
AU - Aghakouchak, Amir
AU - Huang, Jianxi
AU - Mulla, David
AU - Makowski, David
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
PY - 2022/5
Y1 - 2022/5
N2 - How climate change will affect overwintering crops is largely unknown due to the complex and understudied interactions among temperature, rainfall and snowpack. Increases in average winter temperature should release cold limitations yet warming-induced reductions of snowpack thickness should lead to decreased insulation effects and more exposure to freezing. Here, using statistical models, we show that the presence of snowpack weakens yield sensitivity to freezing stress by 22% during 1999–2019. By 2080–2100, we project that reduced snow cover insulation will offset up to one-third of the yield benefit (8.8 ± 1.1% for RCP 4.5 and 11.8 ± 1.4% for RCP 8.5) from reduced frost stress across the United States. Furthermore, by 2080–2100 future decline in wheat growing season snowfall (source of snowmelt) will drive a yield loss greater than the yield benefit from increasing rainfall. Explicitly considering these factors is critical to predict the climate change impacts on winter wheat production in snowy regions.
AB - How climate change will affect overwintering crops is largely unknown due to the complex and understudied interactions among temperature, rainfall and snowpack. Increases in average winter temperature should release cold limitations yet warming-induced reductions of snowpack thickness should lead to decreased insulation effects and more exposure to freezing. Here, using statistical models, we show that the presence of snowpack weakens yield sensitivity to freezing stress by 22% during 1999–2019. By 2080–2100, we project that reduced snow cover insulation will offset up to one-third of the yield benefit (8.8 ± 1.1% for RCP 4.5 and 11.8 ± 1.4% for RCP 8.5) from reduced frost stress across the United States. Furthermore, by 2080–2100 future decline in wheat growing season snowfall (source of snowmelt) will drive a yield loss greater than the yield benefit from increasing rainfall. Explicitly considering these factors is critical to predict the climate change impacts on winter wheat production in snowy regions.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41558-022-01327-3
DO - 10.1038/s41558-022-01327-3
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85127691679
SN - 1758-678X
VL - 12
SP - 485
EP - 490
JO - Nature Climate Change
JF - Nature Climate Change
IS - 5
ER -